Recently, I wrote a piece for Search Engine Watch about a few trends or ‘events’ that I think people should look for in 2008 (no link...not published yet). Among the list was the tempering of the Google global share growth. “Share” not to be confused with “absolute” growth, is what we often see quoted, and in such a way that one might think other engines are falling to the wayside. Everyone is growing in absolute numbers. Google has been the growth leader and grabbed higher shares. But all are growing. I elaborated on this point here in the SEMPO Global Search Blog.
One of the reasons I believe the Google global share is going to plateau and perhaps give up a few points is that the major source of growth for the search engines is in developing nations and in China. China, where Baidu has over 60% share to Google’s 20%.
Gordon Hotchkiss, Search Engine Land 6/07:
“…I cannot overstate the importance of the Chinese Market in the global marketplace. One number that I found mind boggling was the fact that Chinese is the world’s 2nd largest online market, with 150 million users. That puts China only slightly behind the US at 154 million users. But that represents 68% penetration in the US market, and only slightly over 10% in the Chinese market. Obviously, the potential in China is huge and barely untapped.”
From a western perspective, there are reasons to think Baidu will not continue to enjoy this lead. The quality of the search results are lower and the nature of the searches are mp3 focused. But then again, ethnocentrism has always been a western weakness. The fact is there is a national pride component that drives this usage. Users have stated that they choose Baidu because it is a Chinese grown engine.
There are also indications that some tricks are going on. TechCrunch ran a piece that showed some funny business. Whether this is isolated or systemic we don’t know, but there are cases of Google traffic being hijacked and diverted to Baidu. This is not something we should expect outside China.
Now, Baidu is going abroad… to Japan. This is new ground for them. I wonder if, in the name of something closer to home, Asian markets will adopt Baidu in place of Google. The quality will have to be overcome. And, there is tension cross-border. But if the home grown, or ‘nearer home grown’ factor takes sway, one might expect a pinch in Google’s share. Personally, I don’t. I believe that quality, once adopted, will not be given up so easily. In the study conducted by Inquerio, it appears that is what will have to happen for Baidu to make a dent in the Google share outside China.
That said, China is big enough and represents so much potential, that the market’s growth will be enough to affect the Google global share growth.
The truth is, there is, or at least will be, enough market out there for 2 or 3 really big search engines. The industry, on a global basis is still very nascent. Whether it is geo-based or vertically based, as the industry grows, there will be a number of opportunities for several large players to split the pie.
